Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:56:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9021…e52b sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$64 (+9%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$69
other 9% $0
economics 1% −$5
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 42 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 29% +12.7%
all 84 -19.4% -27.0% 37% 33% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 33% -0.1%
10% -34.0% 31% -9.7%
15% -40.4% 27% -18.4%
20% -46.2% 23% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage175d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 08 $30 −$4 -12%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $20 +$30 +146%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $20 −$2 -8%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $15 +$4 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $5 +$12 +249%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $5 +$8 +152%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $5 +$9 +172%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $4 +$2 +44%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Raptors vs. Pistons Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $67 +$253 +376%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Pistons vs. Magic Mar 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 23 $10 +$9 +92%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns Feb 02 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +8%
Heat vs. Bulls Feb 02 $5 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 35¢ $5 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 34h
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 82¢ $3 51d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 84¢ $7 51d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $10 52d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 14¢ $10 52d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 93¢ $13 53d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 72¢ $20 54d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 29¢ $10 54d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 26¢ $10 54d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 40¢ $20 56d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 32¢ $15 59d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 20¢ $5 60d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 81¢ $15 60d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 69¢ $1 60d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 69¢ $2 60d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 52¢ $8 60d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 38¢ $8 60d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors SELL Cavaliers 88¢ $8 60d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors SELL Cavaliers 92¢ $16 60d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 61d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 61d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 20¢ $10 61d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 40¢ $10 61d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 36¢ $15 61d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 27¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.95 · official $46.95 (match) · 143 history records