trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 42 | -17.3% | -25.2% | 29% | 29% | +12.7% |
| all | 84 | -19.4% | -27.0% | 37% | 33% | -0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.0% | 33% | -0.1% |
| 10% | -34.0% | 31% | -9.7% |
| 15% | -40.4% | 27% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -46.2% | 23% | -26.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $28 | $28 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 15¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 08 | $10 | +$5 | +46% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 08 | $30 | −$4 | -12% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 05 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 03 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | May 02 | $20 | +$30 | +146% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 28 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Suns | Apr 28 | $20 | −$2 | -8% |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | Apr 26 | $15 | +$4 | +24% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 26 | $20 | +$4 | +19% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 26 | $5 | +$12 | +249% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 26 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 26 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 26 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 24 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 23 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 22 | $5 | +$8 | +152% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Apr 19 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 19 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 19 | $5 | +$9 | +172% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 19 | $4 | +$2 | +44% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Apr 18 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 18 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Raptors vs. Pistons | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies | Mar 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Mar 30 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Mar 30 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Wizards vs. Lakers | Mar 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Spurs | Mar 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Pacers | Mar 30 | $67 | +$253 | +376% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Mar 29 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Mar 29 | $5 | +$3 | +52% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Hawks | Mar 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Mar 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Bulls | Mar 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Feb 23 | $10 | +$9 | +92% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Feb 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Suns | Feb 02 | $5 | +$6 | +122% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 02 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Heat vs. Bulls | Feb 02 | $5 | +$2 | +47% |