trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | No | 64¢ | 78¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+22%) |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | Baltimore Orioles | 47¢ | 84¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+79%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 82¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+25%) |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 71¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+23%) |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | Chicago White Sox | 39¢ | 46¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros | 83¢ | 82¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 67¢ | 64¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) | Cincinnati Reds | 79¢ | 76¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 | Jun 13 | $4 | −$1 | -36% |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) | Jun 13 | $3 | −$1 | -25% |
| Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -74% |
| Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -59% |
| Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +31% |
| Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Jun 13 | $3 | −$1 | -29% |
| Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -32% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -44% |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -82% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -22% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox | Jun 13 | $2 | −$1 | -26% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles | Jun 12 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +30% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -39% |
| Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +51% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -65% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -25% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -25% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 31 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 29% | 26% | -25.7% |
| ≤30d | 31 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 29% | 26% | -25.7% |
| ≤90d | 31 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 29% | 26% | -25.7% |
| all | 31 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 29% | 26% | -25.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -27.7% | 26% | -25.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -34.7% | 23% | -32.8% |
| 15% | -41.0% | 3% | -39.3% |
| 20% | -46.8% | 3% | -45.3% |