Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x901f…bbd5 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$6
politics 40% −$6
culture 10% −$2
sports 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,044) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage95d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Jun 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 26 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $172 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $175 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 30 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 38m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 48m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $29 57m
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 1h
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $782 1h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $286 2h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,069 2h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 36h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos SELL No 98¢ $29 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 36h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 36h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY No 98¢ $29 36h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $797 36h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $22 37h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $15 37h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,111 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,061 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records