Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x901d…507a sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,595 (-27%) realized −$1,594 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$439
other 26% −$698
crypto 23% −$1,320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 50% -34.8%
≤30d 30 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 50% -34.8%
≤90d 30 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 50% -34.8%
all 30 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 50% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 50% -34.8%
10% -12.4% 37% -41.0%
15% -20.8% 27% -46.7%
20% -28.6% 20% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$195 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,594
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$15 +76%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $216 −$17 -8%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $193 +$23 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $3 $0 +16%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $99 +$5 +5%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 26 $887 −$887 -100%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 26 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $158 +$61 +38%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $190 +$40 +21%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $156 −$6 -4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 −$6 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $54 −$30 -56%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 25 $38 +$29 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $676 +$144 +21%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $74 −$36 -48%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $289 +$66 +23%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $207 +$115 +55%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $141 −$7 -5%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 24 $209 +$146 +70%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $168 +$41 +24%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $70 +$20 +29%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $25 +$10 +38%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $14 +$11 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 5m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 21m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 73¢ $199 34m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $216 40m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $216 45m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $193 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes $3 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $99 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 72¢ $218 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $219 3h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 74¢ $722 4h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 74¢ $230 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 93¢ $230 4h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $150 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $190 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $190 14h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $158 14h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $48 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $3.01 · 77 history records