Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
90 0x901b…2af5 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$40
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$42
politics 24% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.2%
≤30d 5 +23.3% +11.5% 80% 80% -3.5%
≤90d 5 +23.3% +11.5% 80% 80% -3.5%
all 5 +23.3% +11.5% 80% 80% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 80% -3.5%
10% +0.9% 80% -12.7%
15% -8.9% 80% -21.2%
20% -17.8% 0% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$31 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage14d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$20 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $16 +$7 +44%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $47 −$31 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $56 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 5¢ $16 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $47 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.04 · official $58.04 (match) · 15 history records