Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9016…3cec crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$138 (-2%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%132W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$20
14 days−$43
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$117
weather 22% −$44
sports 4% −$27
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 43% -11.3%
≤30d 76 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 45% -12.0%
≤90d 144 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 42% -11.7%
all 235 +2.3% -7.5% 56% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% -11.8%
10% -16.3% 30% -20.3%
15% -24.4% 25% -28.0%
20% -31.8% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses132 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage128d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$13 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$19 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$8 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$44 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $39 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$6 +74%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $24 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 48¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $37 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $28 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $28 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $26 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $24 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $25 32h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 82¢ $24 39h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 82¢ $24 40h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 42h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 45h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 46h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 47h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 27¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records