Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
90 0x9014…5b73 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$609 (+6%) realized +$1,411 · open −$802
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,398per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$286
other 4% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 33% +6.2%
≤30d 3 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 33% +6.2%
≤90d 3 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 33% +6.2%
all 3 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 33% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 33% +6.2%
10% -5.4% 33% -4.0%
15% ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -13.3%
20% -22.9% 0% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$362 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,724
Realized+$1,411
Unrealized−$802
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,398
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 49¢ 32¢ $2,252 $1,452 −$800 (-36%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $920 $920 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $2,300 +$89 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2,350 +$960 +41%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $1,600 +$35 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $4 47m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $130 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $300 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $372 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $20 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $300 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $834 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $170 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $200 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $350 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,183 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $480 2h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,300 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $300 2h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 96¢ $3,310 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $300 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 68¢ $1,200 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $1,635 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 68¢ $850 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,723.60 · official $2,723.60 (match) · 31 history records