Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9014…e637 finance 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-7%) realized −$251 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$56
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 20% -7.1%
≤30d 21 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 54 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 35% -8.8%
all 65 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 32% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 32% -15.8%
10% -18.6% 17% -23.9%
15% -26.4% 15% -31.2%
20% -33.7% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage105d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 34¢ 22¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $107 −$12 -11%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$10 -16%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $215 +$28 +13%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$5 +8%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$57 +59%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $66 −$20 -30%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $56 +$8 +14%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $42 −$10 -23%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$8 +16%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $96 −$12 -12%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $50 −$21 -42%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $49 +$8 +16%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $62 +$12 +19%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $33 +$5 +14%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $57 −$4 -8%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $13 −$3 -23%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $32 +$5 +17%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $71 −$17 -24%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $48 −$6 -13%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $123 −$29 -23%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $8 +$8 +94%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $18 −$5 -28%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $45 +$13 +30%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $24 +$44 +184%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 30? May 01 $18 +$17 +97%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $20 −$3 -18%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $23 −$7 -31%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $18 −$2 -13%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $19 −$8 -44%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $22 −$16 -71%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $41 +$2 +5%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $35 +$3 +8%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $51 −$10 -20%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 11 $17 −$15 -88%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $28 −$12 -44%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $47 +$4 +8%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $19 $0 +1%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 03 $27 −$17 -62%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$8 +174%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 31 $12 +$10 +85%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 28 $11 $0 -3%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 57¢ $6 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 31¢ $6 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 24¢ $7 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 20¢ $7 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 29¢ $7 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $8 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $8 2h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $8 8h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 94¢ $8 22h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 9¢ $1 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 93¢ $8 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 93¢ $8 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 93¢ $8 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 93¢ $8 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 6¢ $2 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 5¢ $2 23h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 12¢ $8 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 15¢ $5 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 10¢ $1 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 10¢ $1 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 10¢ $3 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 90¢ $8 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 81¢ $8 25h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 26¢ $3 26h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 26¢ $2 26h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 74¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.53 · official $8.21 (match) · 1198 history records