Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
90 0x9014…9d7b crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-7%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 25% -73.8%
≤90d 4 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 25% -73.8%
all 4 -32.2% -38.6% 50% 25% -73.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 25% -73.8%
10% -44.5% 25% -76.3%
15% -49.9% 25% -78.6%
20% -54.8% 25% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records