Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9013…e7e0 sports 1236 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$349 (+0%) realized +$376 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%517W / 716L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$509est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$437
7 days+$546
14 days+$318
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$601
crypto 3% +$62
other 2% −$279
world 0% −$98
finance 0% −$18
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% −$13
culture 0% +$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +8.8% -1.6% 61% 54% +3.9%
≤30d 220 -3.1% -12.3% 51% 45% -9.9%
≤90d 591 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 40% -21.6%
all 1233 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -9.1%
10% -27.6% 37% -17.8%
15% -34.6% 34% -25.7%
20% -41.0% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$66 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses517 / 716
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$509
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1233 / 1236
History coverage154d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 31¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $202 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$23 +45%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$30 +145%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$63 +307%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 +$26 +84%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$3 -16%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -29%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +197%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $67 +$43 +64%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 −$14 -33%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$6 -41%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Alena Kovackova Jun 19 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $125 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 53m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $20 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $9 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $17 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.79 · official $202.79 (match) · 2470 history records