Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9013…0327 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 31% −$3
politics 11% +$1
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% +$2
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 14% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 8% -9.3%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage303d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 −$7 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $44 +$8 +18%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 12 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $2 $0 +14%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $52 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records