Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x9011…c935 world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$2
other 23% −$6
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +6.6% -3.6% 44% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +5.7% -4.4% 39% 6% -9.6%
all 69 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 1% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage478d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $169 −$4 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $167 +$2 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $145 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $159 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $228 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,588 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $120 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $320 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $423 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $18 −$4 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $14 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $167 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $130 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $47 +$6 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $178 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $86 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $159 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $157 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $133 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $172 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2,206 −$9 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1,046 −$7 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $445 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 07 $12 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 5? May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 28 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $182 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $55 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $59 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $103 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $55 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $167 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $40 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $70 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $108 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $83 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $100 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $181 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $65 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $83 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $145 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.59 · official $181.45 (match) · 257 history records