Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
90 0x900e…01c6 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$393 (+11%) realized +$335 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%52W / 27L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days+$133
14 days+$263
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$256
other 14% +$49
crypto 12% +$61
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -15.5% -23.6% 61% 41% -5.3%
≤30d 71 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 44% -2.5%
≤90d 71 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 44% -2.5%
all 79 +7.4% -2.9% 66% 47% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 47% -1.6%
10% -12.2% 32% -11.0%
15% -20.6% 27% -19.6%
20% -28.4% 20% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses52 / 27
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage238d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 64¢ 100¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $3 −$3 -88%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $120 +$17 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$15 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $174 +$1 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $62 −$2 -3%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $98 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-11-01? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 22 $35 −$11 -32%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $90 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $40 +$19 +47%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $28 +$8 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $8 +$7 +85%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $23 +$9 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53¢ $51 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 80¢ $50 59m
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric BUY Matilde Paoletti 71¢ $15 1h
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric BUY Matilde Paoletti 74¢ $10 1h
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric BUY Matilde Paoletti 60¢ $25 1h
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn SELL Murphy Cassone $0 1h
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn BUY Murphy Cassone $3 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 11¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 26¢ $1 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $138 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 96¢ $50 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 82¢ $70 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 98¢ $100 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $3 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 39¢ $6 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 27¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 19h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 67¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.53 · official $172.53 (match) · 206 history records