Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x900d…cce8 sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
other 21% −$2
politics 18% −$2
culture 10% −$1
economics 8% −$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 154 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 147
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage168d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $150 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $88 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 14d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 14d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $38 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $38 22d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 37d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $19 124d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $25 124d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $25 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $25 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $44 124d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 124d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $44 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $39 124d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $15 124d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $32 124d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $32 124d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $23 124d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $38 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $38 124d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 124d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 124d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 124d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 124d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $41 124d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $41 124d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.24 · official $26.24 (match) · 483 history records