Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x900c…125e world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
other 26% $0
finance 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% +$1
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 36% 18% -8.8%
≤90d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 36% 18% -8.8%
all 33 +0.5% -9.0% 36% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 28 $12 +$1 +4%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.11 · official $39.11 (match) · 83 history records