Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x900c…4096 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$982 (-11%) realized −$982 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$397
7 days−$397
14 days−$593
30 days−$866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.7% -29.1% 62% 48% -32.9%
≤30d 42 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 40% -32.2%
≤90d 42 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 40% -32.2%
all 78 +10.2% -0.3% 42% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 38% -24.8%
10% -9.9% 31% -32.0%
15% -18.6% 26% -38.6%
20% -26.6% 22% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$100 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$982
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage111d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $206 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $217 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $186 +$42 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$50 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $203 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $16 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $33 +$123 +377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 30 $31 +$63 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 30 $113 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $196 −$189 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $84 −$32 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $293 −$285 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 30 $149 +$145 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $116 +$94 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $103 −$77 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $53 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $77 +$23 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $125 +$134 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 01 $100 −$99 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 01 $147 −$71 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 01 $120 +$67 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $100 +$98 +98%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 28 $300 −$295 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 28 $175 +$175 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 28 $300 −$295 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $206 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $207 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $217 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $211 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $186 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $133 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $116 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $94 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $203 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $131 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records