Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9009…b96d sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$268 (+14%) realized +$286 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%27W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$25
14 days+$435
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$223
other 40% +$14
world 2% +$37
crypto 1% −$27
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -61.9% -65.6% 25% 25% -65.3%
≤30d 21 +20.9% +9.4% 29% 29% +113.5%
≤90d 61 -37.7% -43.6% 18% 18% -9.9%
all 85 -4.5% -13.6% 32% 32% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 32% +5.4%
10% -21.9% 32% -4.7%
15% -29.4% 31% -13.9%
20% -36.3% 26% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$16 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$286
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses27 / 58
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage380d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +106%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $37 +$478 +1291%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$57 +111%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $10 −$7 -66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $73 −$6 -9%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $32 −$16 -51%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 +$28 +137%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $20 −$14 -70%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 03 $57 −$18 -31%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $10 +$17 +165%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 −$21 -76%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $50 +$41 +83%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $30 −$8 -28%
Wimbledon: Andreeva vs. Bencic (W) Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Partizan vs. FC Bayern Munchen Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. Anadolu Efes Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2025 US Open? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Sabalenka vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $321 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $30 15d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 17d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $50 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $193 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 20¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 27¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 26¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 51¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.48 · official $107.48 (match) · 229 history records