Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9008…09f0 weather 1129 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$210 (+3%) realized +$246 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%384W / 723L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$152
14 days−$188
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$48
other 10% −$16
world 9% +$37
sports 3% −$10
crypto 1% −$24
culture 0% +$6
economics 0% +$67
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 32% -20.2%
≤30d 658 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 29% -12.3%
≤90d 1107 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 31% -8.8%
all 1107 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 31% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 31% -8.8%
10% -19.8% 29% -17.5%
15% -27.5% 27% -25.5%
20% -34.6% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses384 / 723
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1107 / 1129
History coverage232d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 17¢ 68¢ $9 $35 +$26 (+293%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 4¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 327 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -80%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$8 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$8 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -87%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$6 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$13 +320%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 31m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 67¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.05 · official $118.84 (match) · 2803 history records