Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
90 0x9007…cf89 other 119 markets active 1d ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$253 (-3%) realized −$296 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%66W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$194
14 days−$73
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$240
tech 24% +$98
politics 17% −$135
sports 13% +$7
crypto 9% −$34
economics 5% +$9
finance 1% −$15
world 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -57.6% -61.7% 30% 20% -31.7%
≤30d 30 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 37% -9.1%
≤90d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 64% 36% -8.2%
all 115 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 37% -14.0%
10% -26.8% 22% -22.2%
15% -33.9% 10% -29.7%
20% -40.4% 3% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$27 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses66 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage544d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $375 $417 +$42 (+11%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 16 $148 −$67 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$15 -72%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $134 +$17 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $183 +$44 +24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $31 −$19 -60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $156 +$38 +24%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $522 +$84 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$1 +6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 06 $22 −$2 -8%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $76 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $282 +$38 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 03 $102 −$15 -15%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $60 −$52 -85%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 01 $90 +$94 +104%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 10 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $49 −$14 -29%
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? Oct 21 $177 −$107 -60%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $113 +$44 +39%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 18 $210 +$18 +8%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $209 −$28 -13%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 04 $193 −$193 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Paper Rex Sep 28 $43 −$13 -30%
Valorant: DRX vs G2 Esports Sep 27 $64 −$43 -68%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Sep 27 $99 +$6 +6%
Valorant: NRG vs GIANTX Sep 26 $87 +$13 +15%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs MIBR Sep 26 $78 +$9 +12%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Sep 26 $93 −$35 -38%
James Comey indicted before October? Sep 25 $50 −$3 -7%
Valorant: Fnatic vs DRX Sep 25 $41 +$5 +12%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Sep 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $84 +$7 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $142 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 23¢ $21 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 88¢ $134 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 98¢ $134 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 95¢ $129 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $129 5d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 47¢ $46 6d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 60¢ $152 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $171 6d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 28¢ $27 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 16¢ $12 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $31 10d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 55¢ $32 10d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 63¢ $101 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $15 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $194 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 10d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $503 10d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $606 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.49 · official $718.51 (match) · 320 history records