Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9006…db4e other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-7%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$56
crypto 11% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -27.5% -34.4% 22% 14% -21.6%
≤30d 37 -27.5% -34.4% 22% 14% -21.6%
≤90d 37 -27.5% -34.4% 22% 14% -21.6%
all 37 -27.5% -34.4% 22% 14% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 14% -21.6%
10% -40.7% 14% -29.1%
15% -46.4% 14% -35.9%
20% -51.7% 8% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$14 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $38 −$4 -11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $51 −$14 -27%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$6 -38%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$14 -92%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $6 +$44 +704%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$30 -29%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $41 +$18 +42%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$6 -30%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $91 +$33 +36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 +$14 +56%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $57 +$142 +250%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $36 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $16 −$4 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 74¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $37 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 43h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 43h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 43h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records