Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
90 0x9000…bb78 crypto 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%172W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$20
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$45
other 14% +$13
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% −$8
weather 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.5% +6.4% 100% 14% -7.3%
≤30d 67 +3.4% -6.4% 93% 9% -11.3%
≤90d 122 -5.2% -14.2% 87% 8% -12.5%
all 190 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 13% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 13% -10.5%
10% -17.5% 6% -19.0%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.9%
20% -32.8% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses172 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)190 / 196
History coverage199d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 97¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 WST 80¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $35 −$33 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 80¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 91¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $35 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Darja Vidmanova 46¢ $1 8d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.30 · official $111.30 (match) · 419 history records