Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8fff…7500 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$196
14 days+$142
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.0% +43.8% 100% 100% +45.8%
≤30d 38 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 63% -16.9%
≤90d 42 +8.3% -2.0% 69% 67% -11.5%
all 42 +8.3% -2.0% 69% 67% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 67% -11.5%
10% -11.4% 60% -20.0%
15% -19.9% 60% -27.7%
20% -27.8% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$146 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage37d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? No 60¢ 68¢ $184 $211 +$27 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 63¢ 57¢ $107 $98 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $168 +$112 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $75 +$38 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $77 +$47 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $91 −$89 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $87 +$35 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$44 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $109 +$18 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $113 +$71 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $131 +$94 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 04 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 04 $140 +$22 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $111 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $130 +$99 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 03 $259 −$259 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $137 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? Jun 02 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 02 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? Jun 02 $621 −$621 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? Jun 02 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $264 −$257 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $112 +$58 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $131 +$56 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $149 −$149 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $114 +$56 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $135 +$57 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $98 +$59 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$67 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $91 +$69 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $91 +$40 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $93 +$42 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $177 +$106 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 30 $88 +$44 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $83 +$39 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $268 +$190 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $135 +$79 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $95 +$60 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $135 +$59 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $119 +$90 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $110 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $97 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $81 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $83 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $75 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 56¢ $85 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $75 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $91 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $122 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $87 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 66¢ $97 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 88¢ $138 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 58¢ $12 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 58¢ $82 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY No 63¢ $105 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? SELL No 72¢ $127 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $184 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $225 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 51¢ $2 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 60¢ $3 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 60¢ $3 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 60¢ $113 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 59¢ $112 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 74¢ $162 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 65¢ $104 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $81 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $12 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.21 · official $309.21 (match) · 139 history records