Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ffe…b822 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$133 (-24%) realized +$15 · open −$148
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$154
economics 3% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.2% -56.8% 22% 22% -19.6%
≤30d 9 -52.2% -56.8% 22% 22% -19.6%
≤90d 9 -52.2% -56.8% 22% 22% -19.6%
all 9 -52.2% -56.8% 22% 22% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.8% 22% -19.6%
10% -60.9% 22% -27.3%
15% -64.7% 0% -34.3%
20% -68.2% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)9 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes $100 $35 −$65 (-65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? Yes $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes $30 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Yes $20 $7 −$13 (-67%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $53 −$8 -16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $53 +$18 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 14 $32 −$15 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $21 +$7 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes $53 27h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 3d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY Yes $32 3d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? BUY Yes $32 3d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes $32 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes $107 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? SELL Yes $17 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes $28 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $2 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $3 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes $11 4d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes $11 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY Yes $32 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes $11 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.14 · official $203.66 · 30 history records