Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ffe…3ffe crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day154.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 45% -8.2%
≤30d 55 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 45% -8.2%
≤90d 55 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 45% -8.2%
all 55 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 45% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 45% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 35% -16.9%
15% -31.7% 25% -25.0%
20% -38.4% 20% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day154.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$6 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$4 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$5 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$10 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$5 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $40 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.40 · official $13.40 (match) · 180 history records