Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8F 0x8ff8…e5d6 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$5
other 36% −$5
economics 8% −$2
crypto 8% −$3
world 7% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$776) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage76d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,205 −$3 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $68 $0 -1%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $682 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $722 −$1 -0%
EU dissolves before 2027? May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $749 −$3 -0%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? May 18 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $133 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,202 4m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 18m
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 29m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,168 40m
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $876 46m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $37 56m
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $317 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $67 25d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 25d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 25d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $775 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $698 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $6 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $121 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.64 · official $99.64 (match) · 82 history records