Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8ff7…af4e other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,155 (+6%) realized +$1,156 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate68%54W / 26L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$243
14 days+$820
30 days+$1,175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1,159
politics 9% −$18
sports 7% −$7
other 3% −$14
tech 1% +$9
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$5
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 21 +2.1% -7.7% 71% 19% -2.6%
≤90d 49 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 22% -3.3%
all 80 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 18% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 18% -3.8%
10% -20.2% 9% -13.0%
15% -27.9% 1% -21.4%
20% -35.0% 1% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1,156
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses54 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage211d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,377 −$202 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,800 +$445 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,180 +$100 +5%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,695 +$478 +28%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 27 $21 −$3 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,568 +$118 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $1,520 +$52 +3%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 22 $12 +$2 +20%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 22 $22 −$2 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $38 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,320 +$145 +11%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 19 $22 −$4 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,310 +$31 +2%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $1,081 +$8 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 15 $34 −$7 -20%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 13 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 13 $22 +$3 +12%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? May 03 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $23 +$7 +29%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 28 $17 +$5 +29%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 19 $16 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 19 $21 +$1 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 19 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 14 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Apr 05 $21 −$3 -15%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 05 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $15 +$5 +32%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Mar 30 $12 +$1 +6%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 30 $16 $0 +2%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 30 $11 +$6 +54%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 30 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? Mar 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $76 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $80 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,800 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2,099 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,297 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,280 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,180 13d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 98¢ $15 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 13d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 18d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum SELL Yes 66¢ $18 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,695 18d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,568 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,520 23d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? SELL Yes 81¢ $15 23d
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 96¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL No 100¢ $1,465 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $38 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 90¢ $1,320 26d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 26d
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? SELL Yes 68¢ $18 26d
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,341 26d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 92¢ $14 28d
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? BUY No 98¢ $1,310 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.41 · official $19.41 (match) · 276 history records