Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8ff2…54b8 crypto 1006 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$432 (-5%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%686W / 320L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$354
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$2
sports 39% −$330
finance 7% −$49
world 4% −$14
other 2% −$69
politics 1% −$22
weather 1% −$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -13.7% -21.9% 51% 42% -31.1%
≤30d 304 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 27% -15.2%
≤90d 1006 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 30% -14.5%
all 1006 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 30% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 17% -22.7%
15% -29.4% 12% -30.2%
20% -36.4% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses686 / 320
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1006 / 1006
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1006 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3464 history records