Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8F 0x8ff2…8ea1 sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,162 (-1%) realized −$1,163 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%100W / 87L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1,037est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$239
14 days−$239
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +31.9% +19.3% 67% 67% -10.7%
≤30d 97 +15.8% +4.8% 62% 62% -9.3%
≤90d 187 +2.2% -7.6% 53% 53% -11.5%
all 187 +2.2% -7.6% 53% 53% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 53% -11.5%
10% -16.4% 53% -20.0%
15% -24.5% 47% -27.7%
20% -31.9% 39% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$368 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses100 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,037
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage78d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 LGD NBW 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $53 +$90 +170%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 +$16 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $16 +$21 +130%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$10 +158%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $537 +$34 +6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$12 +80%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $952 −$943 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5,042 −$5,000 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,020 +$483 +47%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,931 +$1,507 +51%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $89 +$344 +386%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $1,019 +$1,636 +161%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $707 +$338 +48%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $913 +$841 +92%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $496 +$429 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $304 +$203 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $463 +$350 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $808 −$799 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $455 +$853 +187%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $655 −$650 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $503 +$107 +21%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $200 −$198 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $404 +$376 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Bellucci Jun 18 $203 +$190 +94%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $354 +$360 +102%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $286 +$69 +24%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $202 +$84 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Golubic vs Sonmez Jun 18 $223 −$220 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $54 +$17 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $40 +$14 +35%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S May 31 $40 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner May 27 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $706 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner May 27 $204 +$543 +266%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $20 +$7 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $4,037 −$4,000 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $3,020 +$804 +27%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2,023 +$1,200 +59%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 27 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 27 $608 +$416 +68%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $611 +$952 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage BUY LGD NBW 60¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 51¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 60¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $144 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $53 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $53 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $37 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $38 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $16 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $16 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 38¢ $6 15h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $27 21h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $27 21h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $15 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $952 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ $4,883 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 85¢ $159 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $1,503 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $4,438 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ $2,931 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1,020 24h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $433 24h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $2,655 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 20¢ $89 25h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 38¢ $1,019 26h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 99¢ $1,045 26h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 66¢ $707 27h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 99¢ $1,754 27h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 51¢ $913 27h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo SELL Yuno Kitahara 100¢ $925 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $1.67 (match) · 309 history records