Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fee…850a weather 451 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,278 (+18%) realized +$4,817 · open +$2,461
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate50%207W / 211L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,373
weather 30% −$6,941
other 17% +$882
crypto 2% −$245
finance 1% +$28
politics 1% −$181
tech 0% +$4
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.9% -25.7% 62% 31% -29.2%
≤30d 52 -25.5% -32.6% 48% 33% -19.9%
≤90d 418 -31.5% -38.0% 50% 18% -34.7%
all 418 -31.5% -38.0% 50% 18% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 18% -34.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 9% -40.9%
15% -49.3% 6% -46.6%
20% -54.3% 5% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$63 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$4,023
Realized+$4,817
Unrealized+$2,461
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses207 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions246
Markets (closed)418 / 451
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 246 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $16 $173 +$157 (+1007%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 72¢ $29 $143 +$114 (+401%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $40 $136 +$96 (+237%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $16 $99 +$83 (+533%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $16 $98 +$82 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $16 $95 +$79 (+509%)
Will Cody Gakpo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ $7 $90 +$82 (+1116%)
Will Romelu Lukaku win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ $7 $84 +$77 (+1040%)
Will Lautaro Martínez win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ $7 $77 +$70 (+946%)
Will Raphinha win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $7 $76 +$68 (+925%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $7 $76 +$68 (+925%)
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $7 $76 +$68 (+925%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $4 $74 +$70 (+1876%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ $4 $74 +$70 (+1860%)
Will Bukayo Saka win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ $7 $71 +$64 (+864%)
Will Cody Gakpo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $8 $68 +$61 (+802%)
Will Nick Woltemade win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $7 $66 +$58 (+790%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $62 +$47 (+299%)
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $8 $62 +$55 (+720%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $8 $62 +$55 (+720%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $8 $61 +$53 (+700%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 28¢ $7 $58 +$52 (+783%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $53 +$37 (+239%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ $8 $53 +$45 (+597%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $70 +$5 +8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $53 −$7 -13%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +21%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $501 −$231 -46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $202 −$186 -92%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $201 −$144 -72%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $301 +$71 +24%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 09 $1,001 −$870 -87%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $280 +$38 +14%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $101 +$112 +111%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $10 −$8 -81%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $203 +$183 +90%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $8 −$2 -31%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $536 −$47 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $140 −$100 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $101 +$42 +41%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $114 −$107 -94%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $288 −$274 -95%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $101 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $182 −$123 -68%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $554 +$105 +19%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $534 +$157 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 23 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $101 −$8 -8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $552 +$51 +9%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $7 −$2 -22%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1,405 +$106 +8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $503 +$114 +23%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $2,215 +$133 +6%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $139 −$99 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 39h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t SELL Yes $1 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $50 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 99¢ $55 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 90¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 86¢ $50 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 100¢ $76 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 89¢ $20 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 94¢ $50 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 67¢ $44 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 75¢ $50 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 24¢ $2 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 29¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 10¢ $2 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 49¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,023.40 · official $4,009.94 (match) · 3500 history records