Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8fee…29ac weather 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+8%) realized +$68 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days+$119
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$115
weather 29% −$17
world 15% −$8
other 9% +$38
tech 5% −$45
politics 4% −$5
crypto 2% −$21
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.8% +1.2% 46% 46% +20.9%
≤30d 32 -20.5% -28.0% 34% 34% +3.0%
≤90d 34 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 32% -3.6%
all 34 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 32% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 32% -3.6%
10% -38.7% 32% -12.8%
15% -44.6% 32% -21.2%
20% -50.1% 32% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage36d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$12 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 +$5 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $60 +$42 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $82 +$74 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -31%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $31 +$66 +217%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $12 +$18 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 08 $41 +$32 +78%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $51 +$74 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $31 +$18 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$50 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $9 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 83¢ $97 5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 17¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.88 · official $75.89 (match) · 94 history records