Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fec…c332 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$146 (-18%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$167
sports 15% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 70% 60% -26.1%
≤30d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 70% 60% -26.1%
≤90d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 70% 60% -26.1%
all 10 +11.1% +0.5% 70% 60% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 60% -26.1%
10% -9.1% 60% -33.2%
15% -17.9% 40% -39.7%
20% -26.0% 30% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$102 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $81 +$8 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$31 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $314 −$275 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$20 +79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +51%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $40 +$10 +24%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $184 +$59 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $75 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $73 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $72 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records