Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8feb…9233 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$26
other 30% +$1
politics 11% −$7
sports 10% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 30 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 42 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 2% -9.8%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage97d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $145 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $403 −$17 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $148 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $148 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $148 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $398 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $66 +$4 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $241 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $160 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $142 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $534 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $130 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $287 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $142 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $129 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $141 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $126 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $146 +$6 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $135 −$14 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $115 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $138 −$6 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $67 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $297 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $3 $0 +12%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $94 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $669 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,016 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 20 $901 +$1 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $900 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $144 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $145 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $131 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $134 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $148 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $148 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $148 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $148 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $134 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $98 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $142 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $148 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $135 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $114 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $135 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $98 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $70 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $66 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $124 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records