Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8F 0x8fe8…2b3c politics 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$377 (-0%) realized −$378 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$839per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$60
other 37% −$76
sports 8% −$176
world 4% −$99
tech 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$6
culture 1% +$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -2.9% -12.1% 12% 2% -9.6%
all 118 -3.3% -12.5% 26% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 11% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 11% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 9% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,552) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$378
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage142d
Avg bet$839
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $656 $657 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,763 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $395 +$2 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,983 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $999 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,532 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,647 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $563 +$3 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,560 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 02 $240 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 02 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 02 $381 +$2 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $3,868 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,748 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $2,496 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,066 −$3 -0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,461 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,225 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $280 0m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $280 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 28h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 30h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $333 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $334 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $657 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $998 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $999 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,199 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,181 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,183 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,233 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 17d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $849 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,251 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,253 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $955 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $957 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $743 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.41 · official $657.41 (match) · 351 history records