Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fe7…6c1f
other · 983 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$3,332 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,621 · open +$1,472
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,617
Realized+$1,621
Unrealized+$1,472
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses509 / 91
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions500
Markets (closed)600 / 983
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day518.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 500 History 600 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,234
7 days+$1,621
14 days+$1,621
30 days+$1,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $243 $266 +$23 (+9%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $238 $258 +$20 (+8%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $243 $239 −$4 (-2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 40¢ 95¢ $99 $236 +$137 (+139%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $129 $141 +$12 (+9%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $92 $133 +$41 (+44%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $122 $125 +$3 (+2%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $98 $114 +$17 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 38¢ 48¢ $76 $94 +$19 (+25%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 50¢ 46¢ $101 $93 −$8 (-8%)
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5) Bamin Real Potosí 70¢ 56¢ $112 $90 −$22 (-19%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 28¢ 37¢ $64 $85 +$21 (+33%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 23¢ 41¢ $44 $79 +$35 (+80%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $86 $69 −$18 (-21%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 90¢ $63 $66 +$3 (+4%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $28 $65 +$37 (+131%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $49 $64 +$15 (+29%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 61¢ $48 $62 +$14 (+29%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $66 $59 −$8 (-12%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Croatia 58¢ 96¢ $35 $58 +$23 (+66%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 21¢ 29¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 30¢ 99¢ $15 $49 +$34 (+229%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $45 +$85 +188%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $57 −$41 -72%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 +$1 +2%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $0 $0 +44%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 13 $6 +$14 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports (BO3) - The International North Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$6 +89%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 13 $31 +$6 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 13 $13 −$8 -61%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +442%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $24 +$14 +59%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +25%
Will USA win the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +6%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$2 +24%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$27 +785%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $65 −$27 -41%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $32 +$12 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $58 +$14 +24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Second half draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 +11%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$4 +222%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $6 +$4 +67%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 13 $27 +$13 +48%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $113 +$8 +7%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$1,389
sports 43% +$1,519
weather 5% +$123
tech 2% +$32
world 2% −$1
politics 1% +$38
crypto 1% −$13
culture 1% +$3
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 8m
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 100¢ $10 12m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $2 13m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 19m
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 19m
Caty McNally vs. Ajla Tomljanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 2¢ $0 27m
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 99¢ $10 27m
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $5 29m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 29m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 31m
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 31¢ $5 37m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 38m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 38m
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $130 40m
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $1 53m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 59m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $3 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 50¢ $5 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 48¢ $4 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $1 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $6 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 30¢ $4 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 30¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 600 +30.7% +18.3% 85% 47% +5.3%
≤30d 600 +30.7% +18.3% 85% 47% +5.3%
≤90d 600 +30.7% +18.3% 85% 47% +5.3%
all 600 +30.7% +18.3% 85% 47% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover518.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.3% 47% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here +6.9% 33% -4.8%
15% -3.4% 23% -14.0%
20% -12.9% 16% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,617.44 · official $6,833.67 · 3500 history records