Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe6…9634 other 43 markets active 13h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-2%) realized +$184 · open −$309
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$44
14 days−$60
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$230
other 11% −$3
world 8% −$97
crypto 2% −$5
sports 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 30% -12.4%
≤30d 39 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 26% -12.5%
≤90d 39 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 26% -12.5%
all 39 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 26% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 26% -12.5%
10% -19.9% 18% -20.9%
15% -27.7% 10% -28.6%
20% -34.8% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,092
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$309
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage39d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $2,289 $2,056 −$233 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $71 $23 −$48 (-67%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Will Endrick win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 23 $292 −$26 -9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $44 −$12 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $84 −$28 -34%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $48 −$5 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $173 −$3 -2%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 22 $151 −$49 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $151 +$37 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $112 +$26 +23%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $56 +$32 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $95 −$13 -13%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $96 −$17 -18%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $25 +$22 +87%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 25 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $87 13h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 45¢ $120 13h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 45¢ $13 16h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 19h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 44¢ $26 19h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 19h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 19h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 44¢ $13 19h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $10 36h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $16 36h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $28 36h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $15 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $15 36h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $26 36h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 37h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 37h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 37h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 37h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 37h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 37h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $25 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,092.25 · official $2,092.25 (match) · 680 history records