Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

8F 0x8fe4…5390 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$109 (-35%) realized −$109 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+32.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+188.8%	+161.3%	100%	100%	+100.2%
≤30d	3	+188.8%	+161.3%	100%	100%	+100.2%
≤90d	6	+46.0%	+32.1%	50%	50%	-47.1%
all	6	+46.0%	+32.1%	50%	50%	-47.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.1%	50%	-47.1%
10%	+19.4%	50%	-52.2%
15%	+7.9%	50%	-56.8%
20%	-2.7%	50%	-61.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$63 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$109

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage115d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$5	+$19	+364%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$30	+$29	+97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$30	+$32	+105%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026?	Apr 04	$8	−$8	-97%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad	Mar 24	$101	−$101	-100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Mar 24	$90	−$81	-90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$24	11h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$62	11h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$5	12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$30	12h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	75d
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	SELL Yes	1¢	$9	86d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad	BUY No	1¢	$1	113d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad	BUY No	22¢	$100	113d
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	BUY Yes	8¢	$90	115d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.48 · official $50.48 (match) · 13 history records