Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8fe3…41a7 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% $0
other 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.6% -69.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -13.2%
all 6 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 0% -13.2%
10% -59.1% 0% -21.5%
15% -63.0% 0% -29.1%
20% -66.6% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions48
Markets (closed)6 / 5
History coverage109d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+854%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+848%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+535%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+470%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+375%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+263%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+169%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 15 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 19? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Apr 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $131 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 59d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 85d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $106 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.22 · official $139.22 (match) · 46 history records