Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe1…d3dd world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$5
sports 22% −$14
other 17% −$1
politics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage484d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $51 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $82 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $85 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $132 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $123 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $85 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $34 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $177 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $37 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $1 $0 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $475 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $256 +$3 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $239 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $261 +$1 +0%
sugaR vs. Jack.Poor Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $34 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $7 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $40 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $12 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $37 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $39 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $39 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records