Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8F 0x8fe1…f013 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+11%) realized +$107 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%91W / 56L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$69
sports 18% +$3
world 4% +$15
culture 4% +$2
politics 2% +$9
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.1% -39.5% 44% 44% -27.2%
≤30d 24 +7.2% -3.1% 58% 58% -7.2%
≤90d 97 +10.8% +0.3% 59% 59% +0.3%
all 147 +10.3% -0.2% 62% 60% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 60% +0.1%
10% -9.8% 57% -9.4%
15% -18.5% 47% -18.2%
20% -26.5% 39% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses91 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage141d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 +$4 +70%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $18 +$2 +12%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 29 $13 −$13 -99%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 27 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$7 +283%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 +$5 +119%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $7 +$3 +40%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$5 +83%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $3 +$7 +188%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 +$4 +54%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $6 +$4 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $4 +$6 +134%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$8 +344%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 +$4 +70%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $8 +$12 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 15d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 65¢ $4 16d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 65¢ $9 16d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Switzerland 89¢ $18 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 18d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Canada 76¢ $7 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 22d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.60 · official $29.00 (match) · 257 history records