Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fe0…8e55 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$34
14 days−$54
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$122
other 23% −$166
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.0% -3.2% 32% 32% -26.9%
≤30d 63 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% -12.2%
≤90d 63 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% -12.2%
all 63 -7.8% -16.5% 44% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -12.2%
10% -24.5% 38% -20.6%
15% -31.8% 37% -28.2%
20% -38.5% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 77
History coverage26d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $5 +$30 +577%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +258%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +203%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $25 −$1 -5%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $15 +$8 +54%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 +$4 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 38.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $10 +$5 +52%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $10 +$8 +74%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $10 +$5 +52%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 38.5 May 29 $10 +$10 +103%
Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5 May 29 $10 +$9 +84%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Rublev May 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) May 28 $101 +$29 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $10 +$13 +123%
Adolfo Vallejo vs. Moise Kouame: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $10 +$7 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. BUY $10 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $10 34h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 24¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $14 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $19 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 16¢ $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 14¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 14¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY $6 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $5 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.63 · official $122.64 · 121 history records