Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8fe0…dd34 crypto 2044 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,270 (-47%) realized −$2,270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%589W / 1196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$939
7 days−$937
14 days−$849
30 days−$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 440 -47.4% -52.4% 32% 31% -42.0%
≤30d 589 -30.8% -37.4% 47% 42% -29.5%
≤90d 1785 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 30% -26.8%
all 1785 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 30% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.7% 30% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 25% -33.8%
15% -50.8% 18% -40.2%
20% -55.6% 15% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$2,270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses589 / 1196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1785 / 2044
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 15? Jun 15 $1 +$19 +3133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.54 · official $17.54 (match) · 3500 history records