Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8fde…87ce weather 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%200W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$22
crypto 3% −$5
sports 1% −$2
other 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 36 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 161 +2.8% -7.0% 91% 6% -9.4%
all 281 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 14% -9.5%
10% -10.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -19.5% 11% -26.1%
20% -27.4% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses200 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)281 / 283
History coverage117d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 29? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 27 May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 25? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 25? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25 May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 23? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 22? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 22 May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 20? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on May 16? May 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 16? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 14? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 14? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 13? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 13? May 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 12? May 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 10? May 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 9? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $34 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 27 BUY No 100¢ $36 21d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25 BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.61 · official $38.61 (match) · 566 history records