Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fde…b0ff
weather · 1136 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$103 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$164 · open +$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$142
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses740 / 344
Open positions52
Markets (closed)1084 / 1136
History coverage128d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 52 History 1084 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 85¢ $1 $64 +$64 (+7591%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+166%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 94¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+262%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 83¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+206%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 39¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$98
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -40.4% -46.1% 22% 22% -34.4%
≤30d 77 -40.4% -46.1% 22% 22% -34.4%
≤90d 1084 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 13% -10.9%
all 1084 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 13% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 13% -10.9%
10% -18.1% 11% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 11% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.88 · official $141.20 (match) · 3500 history records