Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

8F 0x8fd9…0a5a crypto 16 markets active 20d ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (373 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$17,568 (+71%) realized +$17,568 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate62%10W / 6L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$1,536per market

Trades / day373.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (373 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	16	+29.9%	+17.5%	62%	56%	+53.8%
≤90d	16	+29.9%	+17.5%	62%	56%	+53.8%
all	16	+29.9%	+17.5%	62%	56%	+53.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover373.1 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+17.5%	56%	+53.8%
10%	+6.3%	50%	+39.1%
15% ← realistic here	-4.0%	50%	+25.7%
20%	-13.4%	50%	+13.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late +75% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

29.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$2,340 vs −$1,055 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$17,568

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses10 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,536

Trades / day373.1

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 09	$1,247	+$922	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 09	$5,765	+$6,076	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 09	$70	−$70	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 09	$813	+$955	+118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 09	$3,556	+$6,848	+193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 09	$3,606	+$4,393	+122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 09	$1,315	+$2,501	+190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 09	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 09	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 09	$1,293	+$1,290	+100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 09	$2,611	−$2,486	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 09	$260	+$389	+149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 09	$1,834	−$1,765	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 09	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 08	$100	+$18	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 08	$100	+$10	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$49	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$37	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$31	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$109	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$63	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$450	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$82	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$37	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$1,004	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$235	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$39	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$25	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$6	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$12	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$218	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$388	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$476	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$29	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$515	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$39	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$49	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$39	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$6	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 484 history records