Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fd5…0340 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
world 39% +$11
politics 6% $0
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -5.7% -14.7% 17% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 21% 7% -8.0%
all 36 -3.7% -12.9% 17% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 8% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage285d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -24%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $65 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $21 −$2 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $4 $0 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $64 +$12 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $54 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $33 −$9 -27%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $64 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $3 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $43 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $45 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $18 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $9 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $37 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $65 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $13 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $39 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $52 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $13 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $65 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.29 · official $54.89 (match) · 156 history records