Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8fd5…69a5
other · 19 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$4 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$57
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)4 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 15 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+63%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +102%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$7
sports 12% −$3
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 4 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 4 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 50% +4.9%
all 4 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 50% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 50% +4.9%
10% -14.4% 50% -5.1%
15% -22.7% 50% -14.3%
20% -30.3% 25% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.21 · official $57.22 (match) · 27 history records