Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8fd4…9cf7 sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+1%) realized +$567 · open −$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%148W / 189L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,785
other 14% −$435
crypto 9% −$23
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +28.7% +16.5% 42% 42% +30.8%
≤30d 158 +11.8% +1.1% 35% 34% +28.5%
≤90d 235 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 37% -0.5%
all 337 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 41% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 41% -1.4%
10% -15.0% 40% -10.8%
15% -23.2% 37% -19.4%
20% -30.8% 35% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$68 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$289
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses148 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions13
Markets (closed)337 / 374
History coverage104d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $371 $243 −$128 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $108 $118 +$11 (+10%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 26¢ $74 $52 −$22 (-30%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $60 $43 −$17 (-28%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 39¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $52 $30 −$22 (-43%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $44 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Yes 65¢ 49¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-25%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 18¢ $43 $18 −$26 (-59%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 2¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $32 +$18 +54%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $43 +$32 +73%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria v Jun 28 $50 +$301 +601%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $90 −$53 -59%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $40 +$35 +86%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $40 +$35 +90%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $250 +$624 +250%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $67 +$33 +50%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $54 −$53 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $56 −$55 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $39 +$36 +93%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $45 +$55 +124%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $90 −$88 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $53 −$52 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (- Jun 25 $41 +$522 +1270%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $53 +$47 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$127 +250%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $33 +$67 +206%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $42 +$58 +140%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $45 +$55 +124%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $57 +$43 +76%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $54 −$53 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $47 −$46 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $75 −$74 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $81 +$69 +86%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $75 −$74 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $67 +$82 +122%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $44 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 12¢ $80 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 18¢ $100 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $75 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $29 23h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $4 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? BUY 32¢ $100 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $43 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 23h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $37 39h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $90 39h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria v BUY 14¢ $50 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. P BUY 10¢ $50 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY 13¢ $50 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $34 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $40 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $40 46h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. P BUY 15¢ $149 47h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $25 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $56 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $39 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY 29¢ $150 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 28¢ $250 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 17¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.93 · official $855.54 · 1053 history records