Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8fce…f423 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,463 (-15%) realized −$3,452 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,135
7 days−$3,448
14 days−$3,447
30 days−$3,458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$3,471
sports 9% −$368
crypto 2% +$370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -23.0% -30.3% 65% 32% -23.7%
≤30d 40 -23.8% -31.0% 62% 32% -23.7%
≤90d 40 -23.8% -31.0% 62% 32% -23.7%
all 40 -23.8% -31.0% 62% 32% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 32% -23.7%
10% -37.6% 18% -31.0%
15% -43.7% 15% -37.7%
20% -49.2% 5% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$374 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$3,452
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage28d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$370 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$85 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,505 +$175 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,010 +$369 +18%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,203 +$112 +5%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$88 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,507 +$280 +19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,004 +$147 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 +$76 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,652 −$4,620 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,002 +$64 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 0 US Sassuolo Calcio? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $876 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,680 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,405 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,378 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,010 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,203 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 43h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $612 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $320 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,191 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.97 · official $488.97 (match) · 90 history records