Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8F 0x8fce…2566 crypto 546 markets active 2h ago coverage 383d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 383d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,167 (+2%) realized −$91 · open +$1,258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%185W / 328L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 383d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$1,015
politics 20% +$366
other 16% −$188
tech 12% +$873
crypto 10% +$1,741
economics 6% +$1,143
finance 3% −$919
sports 2% −$169
culture 1% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.3% -21.6% 34% 30% +3.8%
≤30d 82 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 24% -9.7%
≤90d 114 -19.7% -27.4% 31% 25% -10.6%
all 513 -6.2% -15.2% 36% 31% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 31% -5.8%
10% -23.3% 26% -14.8%
15% -30.7% 20% -23.0%
20% -37.5% 17% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$42 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$5,501
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$1,258
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses185 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions33
Markets (closed)513 / 546
History coverage383d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $541 $615 +$74 (+14%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $559 $583 +$23 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ 84¢ $120 $539 +$419 (+349%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $419 $452 +$34 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $371 $407 +$36 (+10%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 74¢ 88¢ $290 $341 +$51 (+18%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 74¢ $68 $300 +$232 (+341%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $84 $280 +$197 (+235%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 55¢ 89¢ $162 $263 +$102 (+63%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $270 $263 −$7 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 59¢ 95¢ $137 $222 +$85 (+62%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $146 $151 +$5 (+3%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 74¢ 74¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? No 64¢ 77¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $84 $103 +$19 (+23%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $87 $97 +$10 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $79 $67 −$12 (-15%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $46 $27 −$19 (-41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$17 +274%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $92 −$14 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $952 +$329 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +172%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $319 +$171 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 +$11 +44%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$25 -50%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $423 +$20 +5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $40 −$14 -35%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 13 $41 −$29 -70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +106%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 12 $1,481 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $898 +$262 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 1h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $53 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $32 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 20h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 21h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 21h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 21h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $122 21h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 21h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 73¢ $146 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $78 21h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $96 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $104 21h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 74¢ $150 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $156 21h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $175 21h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,501.23 · official $5,502.49 (match) · 3500 history records