Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8fcc…87cb other 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-59%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$3
politics 33% −$5
sports 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 38% -63.5%
≤30d 8 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 38% -63.5%
≤90d 8 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 38% -63.5%
all 8 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 38% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 38% -63.5%
10% -48.5% 38% -67.0%
15% -53.5% 38% -70.2%
20% -58.0% 25% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -86%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 5d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 37d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records